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rainORshine
Post #46
Tuesday September 17, 2013 5:02pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,713
Original post from Know Nothing

Pure and simple, FIFA will seed the teams that best fit the established powers and Pot management.

Phil Schoen's news makes sense, but not to our benefit. By making participation in the 2010 WC as criteria for being seeded, they all but assure that there will be 3 CONMEBOL and 5 UEFA teams seeded, ensuring Uruguay and the Netherlands as seeds. That leaves all the teams in Pot B as UEFA teams, the 5 CAF and 3 remaining CONMEBOL teams in Pot C with Pot D containing the CONCACAF, Asian, and maybe Oceania teams.


i think people are blowing "pot management" way out of proportion. having an extra UEFA team fall into a separate pot is a non-issue

if US were seeded then 1 UEFA team would be selected at random to basically replace the US in that pot. no big deal. the only stipulation, then, would be that team would have to go into a group with one of the (4) non-UEFA seeds. big deal

that 8th seed will simply go to the highest ranked team using whatever criteria they have.

using current rankings and 2010 WC as criteria as of now (obviously rankings will change) you would have either:
- portugal (if they qualify)

or if they use criteria that must be a group winner and portugal and greece do not win group
- US

the only shady thing i could foresee is FIFA trying to finagle a way for portugal to be seeded even if they dont win their group - basically using 2006 semifinal run as justification

in that case they would seeding portugal over highly ranked russia (15), who would have won their group and over US, who is ranked higher than russia

honestly, i cant really see that happening

MSantoine
Post #47
Tuesday September 17, 2013 5:34pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,611
Original post from rainORshine

i think people are blowing "pot management" way out of proportion. having an extra UEFA team fall into a separate pot is a non-issue

if US were seeded then 1 UEFA team would be selected at random to basically replace the US in that pot. no big deal. the only stipulation, then, would be that team would have to go into a group with one of the (4) non-UEFA seeds. big deal

that 8th seed will simply go to the highest ranked team using whatever criteria they have.

using current rankings and 2010 WC as criteria as of now (obviously rankings will change) you would have either:
- portugal (if they qualify)

or if they use criteria that must be a group winner and portugal and greece do not win group
- US

the only shady thing i could foresee is FIFA trying to finagle a way for portugal to be seeded even if they dont win their group - basically using 2006 semifinal run as justification

in that case they would seeding portugal over highly ranked russia (15), who would have won their group and over US, who is ranked higher than russia

honestly, i cant really see that happening


The reason I cant see FIFA having 9 non-UEFA seeds is as follows. 1st- How do you pick the UEFA team thats not in the UEFA group? best non-seeded UEFA team or worst? If its best you potentially have a group of Brazil-Russia-Belgium-Ghana. It could create the ultimate deathiest group of death as it could in theory have the 5th & 6th best UEFA teams, the best African team, and the best SA team in the same group. If you chose the lowest ranked UEFA team your giving the worst UEFA team an advantage in the fact that the group could be as follows USA(seeded)- Switzerland-Montenegro-Tunisia.

I think FIFA's primary goal is preventing a massive group imbalance and call in to question more corrupt claims. Much more likely they create some cockamaimy reason to have the 5 seeded UEFA teams (heck college basketball does this with last 4 in every year) and have people stop caring in a week or two.

rainORshine
Post #48
Tuesday September 17, 2013 6:02pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,713
Original post from MSantoine

The reason I cant see FIFA having 9 non-UEFA seeds is as follows. 1st- How do you pick the UEFA team thats not in the UEFA group? best non-seeded UEFA team or worst? If its best you potentially have a group of Brazil-Russia-Belgium-Ghana. It could create the ultimate deathiest group of death as it could in theory have the 5th & 6th best UEFA teams, the best African team, and the best SA team in the same group. If you chose the lowest ranked UEFA team your giving the worst UEFA team an advantage in the fact that the group could be as follows USA(seeded)- Switzerland-Montenegro-Tunisia.

I think FIFA's primary goal is preventing a massive group imbalance and call in to question more corrupt claims. Much more likely they create some cockamaimy reason to have the 5 seeded UEFA teams (heck college basketball does this with last 4 in every year) and have people stop caring in a week or two.


you would select randomly

all 9 will have "ranked" BELOW the last seeded team - which is why they are NOT SEEDED

you are always going to have a group of death. withholding a seed because a team is not from the "right" confedereration does not reduce the risk of wacky group, it INCREASES that risk

in your scenario you are theoretically withholding a seed from a team that would otherwise have earned one just for the sake of having 8 non-seeded UEFA teams instead of 9

that creates the opportunity for MORE imbalance

they can not just randomly decide to always have 8 non-seeded EUFA teams. if it works out that way, great. if not, no big deal

you figure out the top 8 seeds and work everything out from there

Know Nothing
Post #49
Tuesday September 17, 2013 7:03pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 230
The only fair and transparent way to do this is to do away with the pots entirely and use the rankings to list all qualified teams from 1-32. From there the groups would be as follows:

A: 1, 16, 17, 32
B: 2, 15, 18, 31
C: 3, 14, 19, 30
D: 4, 13, 20, 29
E: 5, 12, 21, 28
F: 6, 11, 22, 27
G: 7, 10, 23, 26
H: 8, 9, 24, 25

Everyone will know exactly where they stand during the process. It will be rare, given the way the coefficients benefit UEFA teams, that there will be 3 UEFA teams in the same group.

In this format we would draw Italy or Columbia.

MSantoine
Post #50
Tuesday September 17, 2013 8:06pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,611
Original post from rainORshine

they can not just randomly decide to always have 8 non-seeded EUFA teams. if it works out that way, great. if not, no big deal

you figure out the top 8 seeds and work everything out from there


I guess we will see come december on if FIFA changes there seeding rules again and end up with 5 seeded UEFA teams

rainORshine
Post #51
Wednesday September 18, 2013 5:03pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,713
for a little perspective look at 2006

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_...

mexico was seeded. US was ranked 1 place outside of a seed (9th overall)

AND - there were 9 non-seeded UEFA teams - serbia was taken out and basically added to CONCACAF/ASIA pot (technically, they put them alone in their own pot...). serbia was selected based on having lowest current FIFA ranking (so there is precedence for doing it that way)

this process left holland unseeded which probably could have been "arranged" somehow and could have left UEFA with 8 unseeded teams instead of 9

a recent example of FIFA NOT going out of there way to keep things tidy

platter
Jacksonville, FL
Post #52
Wednesday September 18, 2013 10:37pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 67
I've been wondering why FIFA doesn't institute 4 pots that are all seeded. Would put the US in pot 2. Yes, this would make the draw more complicated, but not extraordinarily so. You'd just have to make sure no group has 3 euro teams, and no other confed has 2 teams in a group. Plus, perhaps making even number of teams fro confederations on each side of the draw. Really wouldn't be that hard
Example:

Group 1: BRAZIL, URUGUAY, ARGENTINA, COLOMBIA, GERMANY, HOLLAND, SPAIN, ITALY
Group 2: USA, CHILE, BELGIUM, RUSSIA, PORTUGAL, SWITZERLAND, CROATIA,
GREECE
Group 3: ALGERIA, GHANA, COTE D'IVOIRE, MEXICO, ECUADOR, BOSNIA, SWEDEN,
ENGLAND
Group 4: TUNISIA, NIGERIA, COSTA RICA, HONDURAS, SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, IRAN

krdonnel
Post #53
Tuesday October 15, 2013 2:03pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 35
Well.. we didnt get a ton of help last week but there is still some outside hope . There is only one spot left for us to reach.. Colombia and Belgium are out of reach.

Here are our scenarios to be seeded... All of these MUST happen today (assuming a US win)

Netherlands must LOSE to Turkey away (A Turkish win and they make the playoffs so they are playing for something however, the Dutch know they are playing for a seed)

Uruguay must LOSE to Argentina

Switzerland must LOSE to Slovenia at home(Slovenia is in contention for a playoff with a win, Swiss have already clinched)

England must DRAW/LOSE to Poland at home (This will be a difficult game for England)

Portugal, Croatia, Greece will all be playoff teams and can not catch us on points regardless.

IF this happens today.. the US will will push up to 9th in the rankings and with the (hopeful) Uruguay elimination in the playoffs...be the 8th seeded team. Jst something to root for today!

bbakerxyz
Post #54
Tuesday October 15, 2013 2:31pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 237
Don't get the obsession with wanting the US to get a seed. Aren't we passed this? Do you really want a group as easy as last time in every WC and then we get booted in the round of 16?

No one in their right mind thinks the US is one of the best 8 teams in the world. We're a lsolid #2 - maybe 10-14th best team in the world based on the last 4 years. I know the FIFA rankings go farther back than that, but that's ridiculous.

recycledhumans
DFWTX
Post #55
Tuesday October 15, 2013 2:36pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 946
The obsession is that being seeded will be our best chance to make it to the quarter finals this cycle.

You can't blame people for being hopeful that something like that might fall in our favor.

MSantoine
Post #56
Tuesday October 15, 2013 2:40pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,611
Original post from krdonnel

Well.. we didnt get a ton of help last week but there is still some outside hope . There is only one spot left for us to reach.. Colombia and Belgium are out of reach.

Here are our scenarios to be seeded... All of these MUST happen today (assuming a US win)

Netherlands must LOSE to Turkey away (A Turkish win and they make the playoffs so they are playing for something however, the Dutch know they are playing for a seed)

Uruguay must LOSE to Argentina

Switzerland must LOSE to Slovenia at home(Slovenia is in contention for a playoff with a win, Swiss have already clinched)

England must DRAW/LOSE to Poland at home (This will be a difficult game for England)

Portugal, Croatia, Greece will all be playoff teams and can not catch us on points regardless.

IF this happens today.. the US will will push up to 9th in the rankings and with the (hopeful) Uruguay elimination in the playoffs...be the 8th seeded team. Jst something to root for today!


Your not quite right. It doesnt matter Uruguays results. win or lose if they qualify either directly or by beating Jordan in playoffs they'll be ahead of us. You also missed the fact that we need Chile to draw or lose as well.

MSantoine
Post #57
Tuesday October 15, 2013 2:46pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,611
Original post from bbakerxyz

Don't get the obsession with wanting the US to get a seed. Aren't we passed this? Do you really want a group as easy as last time in every WC and then we get booted in the round of 16?

No one in their right mind thinks the US is one of the best 8 teams in the world. We're a lsolid #2 - maybe 10-14th best team in the world based on the last 4 years. I know the FIFA rankings go farther back than that, but that's ridiculous.


Its not obsession, its the fact that theres a chance, albeit a slim one, for US to make history. No US team was ever seeded. Who wouldnt want to see it happen. Eventually (hopefully) there will be a first ever seed for US soccer. Why wouldnt you root for it to happen.

Also its ridiculous of you to say theres no chance we are the 8th best team but we are the 10th best team. 2 spots out of 198 nations and its ridiculous? No one is saying we are in the top 5 but 6-10 is become a reality.

krdonnel
Post #58
Tuesday October 15, 2013 3:06pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 35
I forgot about Chili. Chili must DRAW/LOSE to Ecuador.

In my post i have Uruguay losing in the playoffs which is the only way they dont qualify since they are guaranteed at least the playoff spot.

Why WOULDNT you root for your team to be seeded (regardless if they are a top 8 team or not)?!?. You guarantee you dont have to face teams like Spain, Germany, Italy, Argentina, Brazil.. etc. Even those teams dont want to face each other..why would we?? Why do you think the Netherlands (as good as they are), put a beat down on that poor team last friday and will probably do it again today in Turkey... because they dont want to face the other top teams in group play.. thats why.

dolcem
Post #59
Tuesday October 15, 2013 5:01pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 959
Even if all of those things happen, there is absolutely no way Uruguay loses to Jordan in the playoffs. I'd say there's a less than 1% chance of us getting seeded. We just have to hope for a lucky draw in December.
NO ONE GIVES A SHIT ABOUT WHAT LINEUP YOU USE IN FIFA
richieJkulesaNY
Post #60
Tuesday October 15, 2013 5:53pm

Joined Jun 2012
Total Posts: 758
i believe the actual chance is .003%.

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A big question for U.S. fans heading into the World Cup is surely on Jozy Altidore and just what is plaguing the young striker at Sunderland.
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