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MSantoine
Post #1
Wednesday June 26, 2013 9:17pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2,200
So after the last two days results its pretty much certain that for US to advance we need to win AND get help. The most likely scenario is to rootfor Mexico to get a result vs Mali (as crazy as it sounds). Heres the reasoning. Assuming we dont win by at least 3 goals (to bring us to an even GD or possibly even pass France for 2nd) we need to do better than 2 groups 3rd place teams. Heres a group by group breakdown

B) If Nigeria win or draw vs South Korea the 3rd place team will have 4 points and most likely a 0 or +1 GD.

C) Hopefully Columbia & Turkey take care of business and keep El Salvador in 3rd place with 3 points. Theres 1 team below us

D) If Mali wins then theres a chance that 3rd place has 5 points posibbly 4 with a 0 GD as Paraguay vs Greece will probably end 0-0 or 1-0. If Mexico wins or ties 3rd place has 3 points and we are ahead of them.

E) Our other possible hope. If Egypt wins or ties vs England we are better than this goups 3rd. Barring that Chile has a lot of offense and could send Iraq to a big defeat.

F) If Uzbek beat Uruguay we are in. Otherwise its coming down to GD as 3rd place will have 4 points.

So pretty much if we dont beat Ghana by 3 goals, and really 4 to be safe, we need to start rooting for Uzbekistan, Mexico, and Egypt to take care of business. Not exactly teams we usually root for

platter
Jacksonville, FL
Post #2
Wednesday June 26, 2013 9:46pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 87
I work in Statistics and did a quick anaylsis and found that if the U.S. defeats Ghana our chances of advancing as the 3rd place team is 78.6% (assuming equal likely of W/D/L for all other matches). That's also assuming we are worst in goal differential which seems likely given our current -3.

Not bad odds at all with a win.

Jzaval01
Post #3
Wednesday June 26, 2013 10:15pm

Joined May 2013
Total Posts: 1,631
Idk why i see mexico beating Mali and El Salvador losing to Colombia. as for the other ones it can be a 50-50.

2tone
Ten-Towns
Post #4
Wednesday June 26, 2013 10:31pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 5,115
I would like to see the team advance, but if they don't because of GD then it's not a big deal. This group was always going to be difficult, and I think the team has played some good football at times, and have shown that there are some players that have a USMNT future. I think they will put on a good performance tomorrow, and that's all I am really looking for.

Jzaval01
Post #5
Wednesday June 26, 2013 10:56pm

Joined May 2013
Total Posts: 1,631
your right 2tone but i think its more for the player. This crops of players are too talented to not at least be in the next round. It only helps them in their future exposure. And once in the knock out round anything could happen. Happy to have these players

MSantoine
Post #6
Thursday June 27, 2013 2:03am

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2,200
@2tone I agree it wouldnt be the end of the world. And 4 points from our group is pretty much all we could have asked for. However its fun to dream and the knockout rounds are what get the scouts excited. Guys like Gil, Cuevas, Mario, Oneil, Cropper could get some enticing opportunities brought to them (Im assuming Yedlin wont move since hes just started his rookie year)

nolefansandy
Post #7
Thursday June 27, 2013 3:24am

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 281
It wont be the end of the world. I just want the curse of Ghana to get off our back


The next test for the Dooley-led revitalization of the Philippine national team kicks off soon.
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