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Lilshmike
Post #16
Thursday October 1, 2020 10:07pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
Original post from cudevil

Austria and MLS may be on par, but most have the Jupiler League significantly higher than both. For me, playing CL and Europa quality teams pushes Austria higher, though.
Haha of course, you were the one to respond to my post.

Sure, I would agree... but that only really counts if your team is playing legit Champions League and Europa League. Which, Austria Vienna hasn't since EPB arrived.

And by legit, I mean playing in the group stages... not the qualifying rounds playing teams from Estonia, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, and Lithuania. MLS plays CONCACAF Champions League, which understandably isn't the same as Europe, but playing against Saprissa and America is better than playing teams like Kukesi from Albania...

Week in and week out, the level is basically the same. Austria has the opportunity though for higher upward trajectory, but that only applies if the club is facing that level of competition... which EPB has yet to do.

And Belgium isn't "significantly higher" than both. Its slightly higher than both, but not enough to a point where a guy playing in Belgium should be given brownie points for playing in Belgium UNLESS he is playing on one of the top teams and playing in Champions League or Europa League group stages.

Lilshmike
Post #17
Thursday October 1, 2020 10:18pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
Original post from bjelks

Austria has Salzburg which is completely beyond mls

The next 4 are around the 30-40 million value on Par with Sounders

Then there's the chance for Euro competition which raises the level over all

I've been saying this and I understand the logistical barriers but mls needs competitive games with South America to raise value

The way I see the CB pool there's Brooks, Miazga, CCV, Richards, EPB, then McKenzie
You're relying strictly on team values that you got on Transfermkt... which you yourself have used the defense of "the values change daily". Remember that analysis I did a while back based on Nate Silver? Yeah, thats actually a bit more reliable than some Transfermkt values as they were done by one of the worlds leading statisticians. Here is the link in case you forgot:
http://locker.yanks-abroad.com/?mode=topics&t...

The "chance" for Euro competition doesn't mean much unless you're playing on a team that is IN Euro competition. Playing Europa League doesn't mean much when the team you play is from Lithuania or Finland or the Faroe Islands. The level is pretty low... until you get to group stages.

I agree on MLS needing to play against South American teams. Truth is that the entire CONCACAF region needs restructuring to where there is a Central American Super League and a Caribbean Super League, with MLS and Mexico remaining... which is not happening.

To bring it full circle... again, you're argument isn't rooted in anything other than "this guy is in Europe and is not in MLS, and MLS sucks, so therefore he is better than any option we have in MLS". Thats just not convincing. I'm all for calling him in and think he has earned a shot, but its isn't solely rooted in him playing in Austria...

Lilshmike
Post #18
Thursday October 1, 2020 10:18pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
I actually think Austria Vienna may have played a Europa League qualifier by the time EPB got there, but he didn't play.

But to keep it on topic, Chris Richards, assuming he continues to see minutes with Bayern, should be called up sooner rather than later.

hamsamwich
Post #19
Friday October 2, 2020 2:33am

Joined Oct 2013
Total Posts: 3,454
Original post from chris_thebassplayer

I like Richards a lot. I'd like to see GB start to integrate him into the CB mix soon...he's blue chip all the way. Barring injury, he's going to be the dude for us at CB.
Thats where I'm going with this- do we see Richards get time as that LCB...??? We had Bocanegra for a long time and then Besler did well, Brooks failed last cycle but has gotten better; this is the USA's problem position right now. We can line up Long, Miazga, Robinson, CCV, Palmer-Brown, Richards, Zimmerman, and maybe a few others at RCB, but the list is short at LCB.

I've defined it as - Brooks (unreliable), Ream (as @dave said- not again please), and any experienced right footer thrown in there at the last minute just to make up the numbers. I've always been a fan of EPB with his ball control and passing I'm sure he could also play in that LCB spot.... but- It's not a deep list. I've said in the past if we want to be this mobile back line and squad we need to put mobile guys back there that can handle the press as well as defend. I'm kind of hoping there is an Olympics and we could pair EPB and Richards and get a look at that combo as we go into the meat of qualifying and onto 2022.

cudevil
Post #20
Friday October 2, 2020 3:15am

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,105
Original post from Lilshmike

You're relying strictly on team values that you got on Transfermkt... which you yourself have used the defense of "the values change daily". Remember that analysis I did a while back based on Nate Silver? Yeah, thats actually a bit more reliable than some Transfermkt values as they were done by one of the worlds leading statisticians. Here is the link in case you forgot:
http://locker.yanks-abroad.com/?mode=topics&t...

The "chance" for Euro competition doesn't mean much unless you're playing on a team that is IN Euro competition. Playing Europa League doesn't mean much when the team you play is from Lithuania or Finland or the Faroe Islands. The level is pretty low... until you get to group stages.

I agree on MLS needing to play against South American teams. Truth is that the entire CONCACAF region needs restructuring to where there is a Central American Super League and a Caribbean Super League, with MLS and Mexico remaining... which is not happening.

To bring it full circle... again, you're argument isn't rooted in anything other than "this guy is in Europe and is not in MLS, and MLS sucks, so therefore he is better than any option we have in MLS". Thats just not convincing. I'm all for calling him in and think he has earned a shot, but its isn't solely rooted in him playing in Austria...


From 538's "How It Works" page:

Before a season begins, a team's SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt (a site that assigns a monetary value to each player, based on what they would fetch in a transfer). We've found that a team's market value - relative to their league's average value - is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. Thus, we use these market values to infer each team's preseason SPI rating.

Lilshmike
Post #21
Friday October 2, 2020 11:26am

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
Original post from cudevil

From 538's "How It Works" page:

Before a season begins, a team's SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt (a site that assigns a monetary value to each player, based on what they would fetch in a transfer). We've found that a team's market value - relative to their league's average value - is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. Thus, we use these market values to infer each team's preseason SPI rating.
Hahahaha that's great.

1) Good for you for digging into this. Shows your commitment to sticking it to me. As I always say, your issue is with the messenger.

2) You're helping my argument... because if Transfermkt values are used as a metric for measuring team strength, and therefore subsequently league strength, then it shows that these leagues are STILL not noticeably better than MLS when the value of ALL teams league wide (the average) are considered... not just cherry picking teams and stats to try and fit a narrative (that bjelks continues to do).

This isn't a defense for MLS, I just want to make that clear. The point is that some of these guys shouldn't be getting brownie points simply for playing in a European base league when that league is more or less the same level of MLS.

But... to clarify as well, there are other metrics used to measure teams on 538. The following is from the same "How it works" page...

League strengths
"Most club soccer matches are played against teams from the same domestic league, but some matches - like those in the UEFA Champions and Europa leagues - can be played against teams from different countries.

To assess the relative strength of domestic leagues, we use recent matches played between teams from different leagues, supplemented with league market values from Transfermarkt, to assign a strength rating to every league for which we have data.

To generate these league strength ratings, we've set up a system where we first assume that all leagues are of equal strength and determine how far above or below expectation each league has performed over the past five years. In order, we:
  • Run through all domestic matches in history and calculate domestic team Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings throughout time.
  • Look at each inter-league match from the past five years and calculate the expected score of the match based purely on each team's domestic rating at the time.
  • Take the difference between our expected score of the match and the actual score and run these results through Massey's Method to find a rating for each league, expressed in how many goals better or worse than the global average that league is.
  • Regress these calculated ratings toward market-value based ratings, weighted by how many inter-league matches we have for each league.
  • Run through all matches in history one more time, incorporating league strengths into the predictions for any inter-league matches to improve the final team ratings.
After going through that process, our league strengths can be interpreted as a bonus (in goals) given to each team in an inter-league match."

So, alas... to my original point, the metric shouldn't be solely focused on team values found on Transfermkt... which 538 is not.

Again, I appreciate you trying to stick it to me. But my original point still stands valid. Hahaha more proof that your real issues is with me, and not my message.

Lilshmike
Post #22
Friday October 2, 2020 11:31am

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
Real question @cudevil...

Are you and bjelks the same person, or friends? Genuine question because you may be the only one on this site defending him consistently. I know I single the guy out a decent amount, but each time I do, I can count on you attacking what I say...

Case and point, you responded to my reply post to bjelks... not once, but twice in this same thread.

bjelks
Post #23
Friday October 2, 2020 11:59am

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,767
@lilshmike my argument for EPB is rooted in a lot of things.

He plays at a league level on par with mls, but has advantages due to facing good teams a such as Salzburg and LASK and has exposure to Euro comp.

Also, he's graded well against those top teams.

Furthermore, he passes the eye test much more compared to Ream, Long, Zman.

We both agree he deserves a shot, so no need to continue to debate.
goalsense
Lilshmike
Post #24
Friday October 2, 2020 12:45pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,510
To be clear, you said earlier in this thread that he was playing at a higher level than MLS, but have conceded that it's on par to MLS. Appreciate that.

I'm fine with Long and Zimmerman. They're both competent. I see them as higher floor, lower ceiling kind of guys. Known quantities who can get the job done, but won't raise the level of our national team.

EPB, given his age and club situation, should be viewed as a guy with a slightly lower floor but higher ceiling than Zimmerman and Long at this point in time. Given that, it makes sense that he should be given a shot, because he should theoretically continue to improve.

Same applies to Richards. But Richards seems to be quickly moving to where his floor is at or above others we've talked about (except for Brooks), and his ceiling seems to be very high.

stoked-3
Post #25
Friday October 2, 2020 4:54pm

Joined Mar 2020
Total Posts: 99
Original post from Lilshmike

Real question @cudevil...

Are you and bjelks the same person, or friends? Genuine question because you may be the only one on this site defending him consistently. I know I single the guy out a decent amount, but each time I do, I can count on you attacking what I say...

Case and point, you responded to my reply post to bjelks... not once, but twice in this same thread.


You get uber sensitive often, if someone doesn't agree with your thinking you say. you just do not like the messenger its not the message. In watching the last couple of threads it seems like alot of people disagree with your positions. You constantly say I am not defending, then go on to defend the position. Its ok thats your opinion but it certainly leans to defend mls and GB at every turn.

stoked-3
Post #26
Friday October 2, 2020 5:02pm

Joined Mar 2020
Total Posts: 99
Original post from Lilshmike

To be clear, you said earlier in this thread that he was playing at a higher level than MLS, but have conceded that it's on par to MLS. Appreciate that.

I'm fine with Long and Zimmerman. They're both competent. I see them as higher floor, lower ceiling kind of guys. Known quantities who can get the job done, but won't raise the level of our national team.

EPB, given his age and club situation, should be viewed as a guy with a slightly lower floor but higher ceiling than Zimmerman and Long at this point in time. Given that, it makes sense that he should be given a shot, because he should theoretically continue to improve.

Same applies to Richards. But Richards seems to be quickly moving to where his floor is at or above others we've talked about (except for Brooks), and his ceiling seems to be very high.

It doesn't matter the league per se, if player can play US Soccer should have good enough talent evaluators to identify players who can help the Nats. As for Long-Im fine with him, Zimmerman no thanks. We should see and should have seen before now: Alvarado, Robinson, EPB, Richards, I don not rate CCV but he should have received looks- we are not necessarily looking for startes but rather depth and as you said 2026 Zimmer in no way and for that matter long have no place in 2026

cudevil
Post #27
Friday October 2, 2020 5:45pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,105
Original post from Lilshmike

Hahahaha that's great.

1) Good for you for digging into this. Shows your commitment to sticking it to me. As I always say, your issue is with the messenger.

2) You're helping my argument... because if Transfermkt values are used as a metric for measuring team strength, and therefore subsequently league strength, then it shows that these leagues are STILL not noticeably better than MLS when the value of ALL teams league wide (the average) are considered... not just cherry picking teams and stats to try and fit a narrative (that bjelks continues to do).

This isn't a defense for MLS, I just want to make that clear. The point is that some of these guys shouldn't be getting brownie points simply for playing in a European base league when that league is more or less the same level of MLS.

But... to clarify as well, there are other metrics used to measure teams on 538. The following is from the same "How it works" page...

League strengths
"Most club soccer matches are played against teams from the same domestic league, but some matches - like those in the UEFA Champions and Europa leagues - can be played against teams from different countries.

To assess the relative strength of domestic leagues, we use recent matches played between teams from different leagues, supplemented with league market values from Transfermarkt, to assign a strength rating to every league for which we have data.

To generate these league strength ratings, we've set up a system where we first assume that all leagues are of equal strength and determine how far above or below expectation each league has performed over the past five years. In order, we:
  • Run through all domestic matches in history and calculate domestic team Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings throughout time.
  • Look at each inter-league match from the past five years and calculate the expected score of the match based purely on each team's domestic rating at the time.
  • Take the difference between our expected score of the match and the actual score and run these results through Massey's Method to find a rating for each league, expressed in how many goals better or worse than the global average that league is.
  • Regress these calculated ratings toward market-value based ratings, weighted by how many inter-league matches we have for each league.
  • Run through all matches in history one more time, incorporating league strengths into the predictions for any inter-league matches to improve the final team ratings.
After going through that process, our league strengths can be interpreted as a bonus (in goals) given to each team in an inter-league match."

So, alas... to my original point, the metric shouldn't be solely focused on team values found on Transfermkt... which 538 is not.

Again, I appreciate you trying to stick it to me. But my original point still stands valid. Hahaha more proof that your real issues is with me, and not my message.


Serious question...where'd the goalposts go?

cudevil
Post #28
Friday October 2, 2020 5:46pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,105
Original post from stoked-3

You get uber sensitive often, if someone doesn't agree with your thinking you say. you just do not like the messenger its not the message. In watching the last couple of threads it seems like alot of people disagree with your positions. You constantly say I am not defending, then go on to defend the position. Its ok thats your opinion but it certainly leans to defend mls and GB at every turn.


Exactly. And the "I'm the smartest guy in the room" schtick gets really old.

cudevil
Post #29
Friday October 2, 2020 5:56pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,105
Original post from Lilshmike

Hahahaha that's great.

1) Good for you for digging into this. Shows your commitment to sticking it to me. As I always say, your issue is with the messenger.

2) You're helping my argument... because if Transfermkt values are used as a metric for measuring team strength, and therefore subsequently league strength, then it shows that these leagues are STILL not noticeably better than MLS when the value of ALL teams league wide (the average) are considered... not just cherry picking teams and stats to try and fit a narrative (that bjelks continues to do).

This isn't a defense for MLS, I just want to make that clear. The point is that some of these guys shouldn't be getting brownie points simply for playing in a European base league when that league is more or less the same level of MLS.

But... to clarify as well, there are other metrics used to measure teams on 538. The following is from the same "How it works" page...

League strengths
"Most club soccer matches are played against teams from the same domestic league, but some matches - like those in the UEFA Champions and Europa leagues - can be played against teams from different countries.

To assess the relative strength of domestic leagues, we use recent matches played between teams from different leagues, supplemented with league market values from Transfermarkt, to assign a strength rating to every league for which we have data.

To generate these league strength ratings, we've set up a system where we first assume that all leagues are of equal strength and determine how far above or below expectation each league has performed over the past five years. In order, we:
  • Run through all domestic matches in history and calculate domestic team Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings throughout time.
  • Look at each inter-league match from the past five years and calculate the expected score of the match based purely on each team's domestic rating at the time.
  • Take the difference between our expected score of the match and the actual score and run these results through Massey's Method to find a rating for each league, expressed in how many goals better or worse than the global average that league is.
  • Regress these calculated ratings toward market-value based ratings, weighted by how many inter-league matches we have for each league.
  • Run through all matches in history one more time, incorporating league strengths into the predictions for any inter-league matches to improve the final team ratings.
After going through that process, our league strengths can be interpreted as a bonus (in goals) given to each team in an inter-league match."

So, alas... to my original point, the metric shouldn't be solely focused on team values found on Transfermkt... which 538 is not.

Again, I appreciate you trying to stick it to me. But my original point still stands valid. Hahaha more proof that your real issues is with me, and not my message.


And I did the math based on Silver's rankings. The average Belgian team is ranked approximately 30 spots higher than the average MLS team. That's a big gap. The top 4 teams in Belgium are all ranked better than the best MLS team, LAFC. The top 6 teams are all ranked inside the top 200. Only LAFC has that distinction. The large majority of MLS teams would be mid-table or worse in the Belgian league. I don't think that is a sign of two leagues generally on par with one another. But whatever, you do you. Continue to "coincidentally" defend the state of the national team and Berhalter.

cudevil
Post #30
Friday October 2, 2020 6:05pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,105
I also suspect that some of those MLS rankings are a bit inflated, given the Transfermarkt component. While salary caps and DP limitations limit the ceiling for the value of a team, it also creates an artificial floor as well-hence the vast majority of MLS teams slotting in to the 200's.

And I am a person that believes that there are more MLS players that could play in Europe than people realize, but that MLS's sell on strategy and barriers to entry make it difficult for guys to get into better leagues.

That said, it seems pretty obvious to me that there is a huge MLS bias, and that unless a guy is blowing up at a big Euro club, the benefit of the doubt goes to the MLS player. I think anyone playing in the top 2 tiers of Spain, UK, France, Germany, and Italy, along with the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium and Austria should be given equal weight-and I absolutely do not see that happening. I mean, if people want to argue that MLS and Belgium are on par, then the same goes for Bundes 2, Serie B, Primera B, the League Championship, etc.

The one reason that Euro guys should get more benefit of the doubt, in my opinion, is that it is FAR more cutthroat there than the MLS. If you don't perform, you sit. If a guy is in the rotation, he's beating back a lot more competition than a guy that has "arrived" for an MLS team. The "stars" get run out all the time irrespective of performance.

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