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Know Nothing
Post #31
Tuesday July 16, 2019 7:27pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 1,617
Original post from Lilshmike

We aren't really in a developmental phase. We missed the WC in 2018, and so did other big time national teams. People take this as some monumental issue - and although it wasn't ideal and was embarrassing, statistically it is bound to happen every once in a while.



When saying other big time teams didn't make the WC in 2018 you conveniently forget to mention how competitive the other qualifying regions were compared to CONCACAF. Look at how well Panama did in the WC compared to the other teams that upset the cart and qualified against the odds. Qualification was in our grasp and we lost to Trinidad and Tobago..a team mostly full of semi-professionals or bench warmers.

For me playing time at a club is not important. It is how they fit within the team. We are nowhere near competitive on the world stage, which is GB's stated goal, so we certainly are still in a developmental phase until we are near that goal.

hamsamwich
Post #32
Tuesday July 16, 2019 7:33pm

Joined Oct 2013
Total Posts: 3,138
If learning a new system while turning over the keys to Pulisic Adams etc isn't a development phase I don't know what is a development phase.

GBs stated gold cup goal was winning it but in many people's eyes the results were a success.

The Netherlands and Italy did retool and rebuild for what that's worth.

It is a monumental thing to not qualify from Concacaf. Statistically we should always qualify our pool of available players is way higher and more talented.

hamsamwich
Post #33
Tuesday July 16, 2019 7:36pm

Joined Oct 2013
Total Posts: 3,138
Also the September friendly is a game vs Mexico at MetLife.

cudevil
Post #34
Tuesday July 16, 2019 8:00pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 920
Original post from Lilshmike

First thing first - if they aren't able to crack it at the club level, then they aren't able to hack it at the international level. Period. If that changes, yes, call them in. But if they can't even make the field for their club team then they should be nowhere near the USMNT.

Next - developmental period? Thats a bit off. Players who were on the team in previous cycles now, who are in the age range where they will/may still be in the picture come 2022:
  • Brooks
  • Yedlin
  • Altidore
  • Bradley
  • Miazga
  • Arriola
  • Zardes (I don't like him, but still hes earned the right to be in the conversation)
  • Morris (he has been around, was the next big thing before staying in MLS and getting hurt, and will continue to be in the picture moving forward like it or not)
  • Wood (although he wasn't in the GC and hasn't been in form, still counts)
Then throw in the newer, emerging, seemingly locked in players:
  • Pulisic
  • McKennie
  • Adams
  • Boyd
  • Long
  • Steffen
  • Horvath
We could throw Zimmerman into that convo as well. Including Zim, thats 17 names. Out of a roster of 23... what is so developmental about 5 open slots (excluding the 3rd goalkeeper)?

This is normal. We have a few slots where we can rotate in kids to give them a shot when they've earned it. Over time, some may push out the guys listed/in front of them, or they may not.

We aren't really in a developmental phase. We missed the WC in 2018, and so did other big time national teams. People take this as some monumental issue - and although it wasn't ideal and was embarrassing, statistically it is bound to happen every once in a while.

With respect to our pool, some guys phased out, some guys phased in. Look at the numbers - this isn't unusual and its not like we are in some crisis where we need to start over with an entirely new roster of players.

As stated before, people are splitting hairs over a few bench/fringe/roster spots. When you objectively look at our pool and analyze it for what it is on a positional basis... thats exactly what it is - a few bench spots. That can certainly change throughout qualifying, but its up to the younger players to prove they deserve to be in the camps through their club form/performances - not the USMNT manager to force in a bunch of young guys, who may or may not be ready or pan out, in the name of potential or development.


When you miss the WC coming out of CONCACAF, you're in a developmental phase and it's a crisis. Period. It's not like this was a bunch of young guys that failed last time around.

As far as the list of players you mentioned, the entire point is to phase out some of the guys that can no longer (or could never)-for me, that's Bradley, Arriola, Morris, and to a lesser extent Altidore.

I'd further add that the team should always be looking to improve even if some of the vets are playing ok. If Chris Richards or EPB plays better for the Nats than Miazga, Long, etc., then you play those two, regardless of whether Richards was getting first team minutes at Bayern or whether EPB is out on loan from Man City.

So I fully reject the premise that it's only 5 bench spots. And even it if it is, considering we aren't really playing any meaningful games for another year or more, there is still no reason not to be aggressive in calling guys in to give them a look.

blaise213
Post #35
Tuesday July 16, 2019 9:55pm

Joined Sep 2012
Total Posts: 2,908
NO other federation in the World handicaps their national team to promote their domestic league.

MLS thinks they are better then what they are. You have good players in MLS but they're foreign players. Some of the younger American MLS players are good and they get picked off by the Euro Teams. Any MLS player still in playing in their mid 20's should not be on the national team period.

Kamphgruppe
Michigan
Post #36
Wednesday July 17, 2019 3:45am

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 794
Original post from blaise213

Yeah did you not see the MLS style vs Mexico?

✔️Long balls
✔️Back passes under pressure
✔️not using their chest to bring down the ball to maintain possession
✔️no 1vs1 attacking
✔️ Shit finishing

Do you not notice this ?


This is the way the US have always played TBH, really does not have anything to do with MLS, but by all means, continue with your crusade.

bjelks
Post #37
Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:56am

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,221
Actually the best, most technical and recognizable players in the history of the program all played their primes in Europe. Just a fact, no shade on MLS.
goalsense
Kamphgruppe
Michigan
Post #38
Wednesday July 17, 2019 8:59am

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 794
Original post from bjelks

Actually the best, most technical and recognizable players in the history of the program all played their primes in Europe. Just a fact, no shade on MLS.


Very true.

Samtom23
Post #39
Wednesday July 17, 2019 10:59am

Joined Jun 2018
Total Posts: 35
Agreed but MLS is starting to be a spring board for some our players playing in Europe. Adams, will see if Pomykal sticks around. And players that have some link to an academy of a team.

Lilshmike
Post #40
Wednesday July 17, 2019 2:27pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,167
Original post from blaise213

NO other federation in the World handicaps their national team to promote their domestic league.

MLS thinks they are better then what they are. You have good players in MLS but they're foreign players. Some of the younger American MLS players are good and they get picked off by the Euro Teams. Any MLS player still in playing in their mid 20's should not be on the national team period.
False. England very much has an agenda to promote their domestic league.

Lilshmike
Post #41
Wednesday July 17, 2019 2:43pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,167
Original post from Know Nothing

When saying other big time teams didn't make the WC in 2018 you conveniently forget to mention how competitive the other qualifying regions were compared to CONCACAF. Look at how well Panama did in the WC compared to the other teams that upset the cart and qualified against the odds. Qualification was in our grasp and we lost to Trinidad and Tobago..a team mostly full of semi-professionals or bench warmers.

For me playing time at a club is not important. It is how they fit within the team. We are nowhere near competitive on the world stage, which is GB's stated goal, so we certainly are still in a developmental phase until we are near that goal.
No... it wasn't convenient. It was a summary of the situation. Italy and Netherlands didn't make it, but they should have - competition or not. There were other national teams who struggled to make it across the finish line as well like Colombia, and Chile (the 2 time defending South American Champion) failed to qualify.

And I'm sorry, but I'm going to call you out on that last statement. Playing time at a club is not important? Thats... thats just way off base. So if we call in a squad with a bunch of youth/reserve/bench team players, how are we to expect them to play with the USMNT if they have no game experience? If they don't play for their club team, how are we even supposed to know what they can do or how they could possibly fit into the USMNT? At that point, you're calling in players you know nothing about and/or haven't seen, simply because they may be on the books for a high profile club. Thats pretty stupid, and no reputable, respectable manager would ever do that.

Lilshmike
Post #42
Wednesday July 17, 2019 3:17pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 1,167
Original post from hamsamwich

If learning a new system while turning over the keys to Pulisic Adams etc isn't a development phase I don't know what is a development phase.

GBs stated gold cup goal was winning it but in many people's eyes the results were a success.

The Netherlands and Italy did retool and rebuild for what that's worth.

It is a monumental thing to not qualify from Concacaf. Statistically we should always qualify our pool of available players is way higher and more talented.
We have a new manager. The new manager wants to implement a new style of play. New manager and new style of play doesn't mean developmental. Is Chelsea in a developmental period right now with Lampard? How about Inter Milan with Conte, or Juventus with Sarri? No. They just have new managers who are coming in with new ideas. How about England with Southgate when he came in? Thats not developmental. Thats actually very normal. The difference here is that in international soccer, the cycles are longer and you don't play as many games/train as frequently so it often takes a bit more time.

We have a pool of players who have experience, we have a number of guys who phased out and a number of guys who are phasing in. Thats not developmental. Thats normal. Developmental is essentially starting from ground zero. We are not doing that - and thats extremely difficult to debate when you look at the player pool.

And thats not how statistics work. The more WC cycles there are, the higher risk you run of failing to qualify for one. When you qualify for 6 in a row, there is a higher statistical probability of failing to qualify for one of the following tournaments.

Heres a math lesson: Statistically speaking, when you have a set probability of an outcome for a specific event, each time you repeat that event you times the probability of that outcome by the previous, continuing for each time the event is repeated. For example, you flip a coin. The probability that you land heads on one flip is 50%. If you flip again, the probability of landing heads a 2nd time is now 25% (50%*50%). Flip it a 3rd time, the probability of landing 3 heads in a row now drops to 12.5% (25%*50%).

With respect to the USMNT, lets say that we have a 90% probability of qualifying each cycle since 1990. Considering that we qualified for 6 WC in a row, the math problem then becomes what is the probability that the USMNT qualifies for 7 WCs in a row. When you do the math... 48% is the result. Thats less than 50%. Not only that, but 90% is a fairly reasonable estimate, because in previous years it would have undoubtedly been lower, and recently maybe higher - so this is a VERY fair assumption. Not trying to be a prick, but again, these are emotional arguments that are being made without any basis in objective fact.

John-Lewis
Post #43
Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:12pm

Joined Feb 2019
Total Posts: 59
So you are saying that we didn't qualify for the World Cup because the coin landed on Heads and not Tails?

cudevil
Post #44
Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:50pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 920
Original post from Lilshmike

We have a new manager. The new manager wants to implement a new style of play. New manager and new style of play doesn't mean developmental. Is Chelsea in a developmental period right now with Lampard? How about Inter Milan with Conte, or Juventus with Sarri? No. They just have new managers who are coming in with new ideas. How about England with Southgate when he came in? Thats not developmental. Thats actually very normal. The difference here is that in international soccer, the cycles are longer and you don't play as many games/train as frequently so it often takes a bit more time.

We have a pool of players who have experience, we have a number of guys who phased out and a number of guys who are phasing in. Thats not developmental. Thats normal. Developmental is essentially starting from ground zero. We are not doing that - and thats extremely difficult to debate when you look at the player pool.

And thats not how statistics work. The more WC cycles there are, the higher risk you run of failing to qualify for one. When you qualify for 6 in a row, there is a higher statistical probability of failing to qualify for one of the following tournaments.

Heres a math lesson: Statistically speaking, when you have a set probability of an outcome for a specific event, each time you repeat that event you times the probability of that outcome by the previous, continuing for each time the event is repeated. For example, you flip a coin. The probability that you land heads on one flip is 50%. If you flip again, the probability of landing heads a 2nd time is now 25% (50%*50%). Flip it a 3rd time, the probability of landing 3 heads in a row now drops to 12.5% (25%*50%).

With respect to the USMNT, lets say that we have a 90% probability of qualifying each cycle since 1990. Considering that we qualified for 6 WC in a row, the math problem then becomes what is the probability that the USMNT qualifies for 7 WCs in a row. When you do the math... 48% is the result. Thats less than 50%. Not only that, but 90% is a fairly reasonable estimate, because in previous years it would have undoubtedly been lower, and recently maybe higher - so this is a VERY fair assumption. Not trying to be a prick, but again, these are emotional arguments that are being made without any basis in objective fact.


Each WC qualifying cycle is an independent event. We don't have higher odds of NOT qualifying just because we've qualified for the prior 6.

The notion that we are only in a developmental phase if we are starting at ground zero is baffling. We had a catastrophic failure last qualifying cycle. You seem to think "Oh well, that's just the odds", and therefore we shouldn't be taking a hard look at everyone. That's a ridiculous approach. Everyone should be up for review and possible replacement. And that mind set should apply at all times, but especially after the lowest point in national team since the '98 WC, if not ever.

I'd also add that you reference the Netherlands, Italy, and Chile as good teams that didn't qualify. The Netherlands and Italy pretty much flushed the system after that, and made a concerted effort to hand over the reins to younger players. Germany just did the same thing after the Cup of Nations. Now, do those countries have deeper player pools? Of course. But it's not like the guys that they just summarily kicked to the curb didn't still have something to offer.

bjelks
Post #45
Wednesday July 17, 2019 5:16pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,221
Original post from John-Lewis

So you are saying that we didn't qualify for the World Cup because the coin landed on Heads and not Tails?


Bahahahaha this is brilliant
goalsense
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