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dolcem
Post #16
Monday June 26, 2017 5:22pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,692
Original post from Rey Regicide

How much of that you think is the move towards Sweeper keeper? Remember reading an article about Friedel vs Lloris comparison at Tottenham and how Lloris allowed their line to play higher. That is why he was favored over Friedel who was the better "keeper" but didn't have the same ability with the ball at his feet. Kinda implying that goalies were slowly being asked to be "footballers".


You're right about the trend but I don't think it explains us not sending any quality goalkeepers to Europe over the past decade and a half. It's not like we have amazing keepers in the MLS that aren't playing in Europe because they're not good with the ball at their feet. I mean Hamid is pretty good but he's no Tim Howard.
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MSantoine
Post #17
Monday June 26, 2017 8:28pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 3,688
Original post from dolcem

You're right about the trend but I don't think it explains us not sending any quality goalkeepers to Europe over the past decade and a half. It's not like we have amazing keepers in the MLS that aren't playing in Europe because they're not good with the ball at their feet. I mean Hamid is pretty good but he's no Tim Howard.


I think some of it is due to two factors: US soccer players getting better technically, and Euro soccer teams realizing that goalie is important.

Back in the Keller/Freidel days, European teams didnt care about goalies. Young players would never dream of being a goalie, so the training was likely severely lacking. Now that the game has modernized and clubs realize a good goalie/bad goalie can make the difference when teams are close, they have invested heavily in the position (look in Europe at some of the young goalies). Alternatively you have Americans who are now pushing to be field players where before it was almost the only path to Europe.

dolcem
Post #18
Monday June 26, 2017 10:48pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,692
Original post from MSantoine

I think some of it is due to two factors: US soccer players getting better technically, and Euro soccer teams realizing that goalie is important.

Back in the Keller/Freidel days, European teams didnt care about goalies. Young players would never dream of being a goalie, so the training was likely severely lacking. Now that the game has modernized and clubs realize a good goalie/bad goalie can make the difference when teams are close, they have invested heavily in the position (look in Europe at some of the young goalies). Alternatively you have Americans who are now pushing to be field players where before it was almost the only path to Europe.


We also have exponentially more kids playing soccer in the US than we did when Friedel and Keller grew up in the 80's, not to mention a professional soccer league. I don't think that you can argue that back in the 80's, every kid wanted to be a goalie. It's not like we had five goalies on every team. You have one goalie and 10 field players. That's always how it worked. Having better field players should not negatively affect our goalkeeping.

I don't buy that "European teams didn't care about goalies" in decades past. Where did you hear this?
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MSantoine
Post #19
Tuesday June 27, 2017 11:26am

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 3,688
Original post from dolcem

We also have exponentially more kids playing soccer in the US than we did when Friedel and Keller grew up in the 80's, not to mention a professional soccer league. I don't think that you can argue that back in the 80's, every kid wanted to be a goalie. It's not like we had five goalies on every team. You have one goalie and 10 field players. That's always how it worked. Having better field players should not negatively affect our goalkeeping.

I don't buy that "European teams didn't care about goalies" in decades past. Where did you hear this?


I think you can see it with the prices of goalies 10 years ago, and today. Also big time countries (England, Argentina, Brazil) historically had weak goaltending where they are starting to get guys who can complete with the best of the best.

Rey Regicide
Post #20
Tuesday June 27, 2017 12:19pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 1,738
I feel like the libero/ sweeper born out of cantenaccio or the cryuff false 9/10 it's been the last position to have evolutionary path.

I do like what you said Dolcem. It's not like we have guys who are amazing goalies but can't play with the ball at their feet. And THAT being the reason we can't get goalies out to Europe.

But could it be that them not being there earlier (Howard was there at Man U at 24 right?) is hurting them through lack of firts team, quality experiences?

USGKDad
Post #21
Tuesday June 27, 2017 7:42pm

Joined Jun 2017
Total Posts: 5
I would put this as:

1. Guzan
2. Horvath
3. Gonzales
4. Steffen
5. Hamid
6. Klinsmann
7. Marcinkowski
8. vom Steeg
10.Bendik

Brady is good, but he needs to bulk up and not get pushed around as much as he does. Brady just finished his high school junior year.

There are other great keepers that are at Brady's level that have played in the academy system. Brady only played 1 Academy match this year for Force. He hasn't played that many matches recently for the national team, although he was along for the ride on trips. He didnt go to the u17 residency program. Playing 3 or 4 matches a year for the national team isn't enough to develop.

All the above are more mature physically and have had longer to develop.

2tone
Ten-Towns
Post #22
Tuesday June 27, 2017 8:10pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 9,116
Brady just signed with FC Koln in the Bundesliga.

USGKDad
Post #23
Tuesday June 27, 2017 8:38pm

Joined Jun 2017
Total Posts: 5
Original post from dolcem

You're right about the trend but I don't think it explains us not sending any quality goalkeepers to Europe over the past decade and a half. It's not like we have amazing keepers in the MLS that aren't playing in Europe because they're not good with the ball at their feet. I mean Hamid is pretty good but he's no Tim Howard.


Its not for lack of trying. Setting aside the FIFA Article 19, for transfer of under age players, and focusing on 18+.

It is very hard to get a work permit/visa to play in Europe. There are countries that it is easier to for Americans to enter in and others it is not to play. In the UK (England, Scotland, Ireland) you need dual citizenship of either a UK or UE passport. Brexit will change this and make it harder for EU passport holders now. In Portugal, Spain, Germany and Sweden it is easier for US passports holders but many clubs are reluctant to pay for the VISA, which can cost as much as 20K Euros for lawyers and government fees. Smaller clubs cannot afford that.

What you recently have seen is that most of the new entrants going to play in UK and Europe are dual citizenship holders. Think Pulisic, Olasunde, Wright are all duals. Most scouts/agents wont even look at you if you don't have a dual passport situation right now. It is usually the first question they ask.

Americans going over now that are 18, join 2nd and 3rd division teams in the UK or Europe. About one third of my sons class from Bradenton is trying this approach. The 2nd division team is their u23 team (eg. bundesliga.2) and the 3rd division team is their u19/u20 team. Most countries select their top players in their academy system between 11-18 for their u19/u20 teams. The UK FA recently got rid of its u20 league and is focusing only on u23s now.

Some clubs propose a student visa to go to school there while they decide if they like you enough to pay for the work VISA. Going to school over there causes problems with NCAA schools here if you have already committed and signed an NLI (letter of intent) and it doesnt work out over there.

tylercocinas
Post #24
Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:37pm

Joined Aug 2012
Total Posts: 1,091
Original post from USGKDad

Its not for lack of trying. Setting aside the FIFA Article 19, for transfer of under age players, and focusing on 18+.

It is very hard to get a work permit/visa to play in Europe. There are countries that it is easier to for Americans to enter in and others it is not to play. In the UK (England, Scotland, Ireland) you need dual citizenship of either a UK or UE passport. Brexit will change this and make it harder for EU passport holders now. In Portugal, Spain, Germany and Sweden it is easier for US passports holders but many clubs are reluctant to pay for the VISA, which can cost as much as 20K Euros for lawyers and government fees. Smaller clubs cannot afford that.

What you recently have seen is that most of the new entrants going to play in UK and Europe are dual citizenship holders. Think Pulisic, Olasunde, Wright are all duals. Most scouts/agents wont even look at you if you don't have a dual passport situation right now. It is usually the first question they ask.

Americans going over now that are 18, join 2nd and 3rd division teams in the UK or Europe. About one third of my sons class from Bradenton is trying this approach. The 2nd division team is their u23 team (eg. bundesliga.2) and the 3rd division team is their u19/u20 team. Most countries select their top players in their academy system between 11-18 for their u19/u20 teams. The UK FA recently got rid of its u20 league and is focusing only on u23s now.

Some clubs propose a student visa to go to school there while they decide if they like you enough to pay for the work VISA. Going to school over there causes problems with NCAA schools here if you have already committed and signed an NLI (letter of intent) and it doesnt work out over there.


What problems does going to school in Europe pose for NCAA universities? I know that NCAA regulations require additional financial disclosures to ensure that foreign student-athletes (hate that word) will be able to support themselves while in the United States, but I was unaware of additional issues that would occur as well.

Also, Wright and Olosunde are sole US citizens and went over to Europe at 18, IIRC. Not that it changes anything about the broader point you were making. Speaking of Article 19 though I think that regulation is probably the biggest impediment to improving the quality of our youth players in that it requires the US (and other non-EU countries) to address the issues within their own developmental programs rather than being able to rely on European nations who have established systems. I'm sure there are plenty of kids here who could go over now, receive top level coaching and turn into fine professionals, but unfortunately that high level environment is not available in every region here in the US where many kids must remain until age 18.

USGKDad
Post #25
Wednesday June 28, 2017 8:27pm

Joined Jun 2017
Total Posts: 5
I was not referring to Europeans coming here. I was referring to American players that go to Europe to play and then come back and play NCAA if it doesn't work out.

For example, one could commit to a D1 program as a Soph/Junior, then head to Europe and finish high school online or at the academy, get into college, take a gap year off and continue playing at the u18/19 level for another year before you start college. Usually by the second year the player will know if their contract will be renwed to move up to u20/23 or if the gig is over.

NCAA D1 rules state that you can play on a professional team before starting college and if you stay beyond this year then you lose a year of eligibility for every year you stay away from the college. The players can even get paid as long as the expenses are actual and necessary. This includes travel, room, board, travel to/from practices and games, equipment, healthcare and insurance.

From the NCAA D1 Manual 2016-17:

12.2.3.2.1 Exception-Competition Before Initial Full-Time Collegiate Enrollment-Sports Other Than Men's Ice Hockey and Skiing. In sports other than men's ice hockey and skiing, before initial full-time collegiate enrollment, an individual may compete on a professional team (per Bylaw 12.02.11), provided he or she does not receive more than actual and necessary expenses to participate on the team.

The kids I know of that are considering the move it is a higher level of competition and the ability to get paid significantly higher than MLS minimum wage at u18/19 is appealing. There are players in European u18/u19 Junior leagues making 100-1M. Considerably higher than MLS starting wages of 65k this year and 67.5k next. It will take a long while before the US system reaches a level both from a play level and financially of the European clubs.

USGKDad
Post #26
Wednesday June 28, 2017 8:29pm

Joined Jun 2017
Total Posts: 5
Brady will finish high school online.

tylercocinas
Post #27
Thursday June 29, 2017 4:47pm

Joined Aug 2012
Total Posts: 1,091
Thanks for the info! I wasn't aware of the other regulations that affected the 4 year eligibility period for student athletes.

LeYankee
Post #28
Sunday July 16, 2017 8:48pm

Joined Jul 2017
Total Posts: 5
Based on recent rosters, club assignments, and my own opinions, I feel pretty comfortable with a post-2018 depth chart that looks pretty close to the below:

1. Howard: I suspect he'll retire after WC2018, but he could possibly hang onto the top job for another year if he didn't.
2. Guzan: He appears to be first up if/when Howard retires, but I would not be surprised if any or all of the next three pass him by 2022.
3. Horvath: Slight favorite for #3 in 2018 and early favorite to pass Guzan first.
4. Hamid: He has a fighting chance at the 2018 #3 and enough talent to compete to start in 2022.
5. Gonzalez: Very talented. Uphill battle to make 2018 roster but looks like he'll be in the hunt for the 3-4 World Cup rosters after that.
6. Steffen: Future looks very similar to that of Gonzalez, but Steffen is probably just a hair behind him.
7. Johnson: He doesn't look like he'll ever be a regular, but he'll provide depth for another cycle.
8. Bendik: Another depth option who is unlikely to get many caps.
9. Klinsmann: His move to Europe could move him up these rankings if he proves up to the task over the next couple years.

As of now, I'd predict the 2022 goalkeepers will be three from Guzan, Horvath, Hamid, and Gonzalez; I think Guzan makes the roster even if he's no longer the starter, as he's shown he could be a solid, veteran backup who shouldn't cause chemistry problems even if he's #3 behind two younger guys. I think Horvath will be there as well, so it comes down to Hamid or Gonzalez to see who is in the best form by then. Really, I would not be shocked if any of those four is the starter by 2022, and Steffen could get into the picture over the next five years as well.

A deep look into the crystal ball says by 2026 Guzan will be done in international play and Steffen and Klinsmann will be trying to unseat Horvath, Hamid, and Gonzalez for roster spots. Between those five, I feel pretty good about having a great goalkeeper to play on home soil; there's a future star somewhere in that group.

chris_thebassplayer
San Jose
Post #29
Sunday July 16, 2017 10:23pm

Joined May 2013
Total Posts: 1,184
I think Howard will be the 2022 WC keeper. After that someone will be ahead of Guzan

LeYankee
Post #30
Sunday July 16, 2017 10:45pm

Joined Jul 2017
Total Posts: 5
Original post from chris_thebassplayer

I think Howard will be the 2022 WC keeper. After that someone will be ahead of Guzan


He'd be 43 in 2022. That's not impossible, but it's pretty danged old even for a keeper. Even Howard's contemporary Buffon, objectively a far more accomplished player, will almost certainly be retired from international play by then. Buffon does have at least a couple established stars ready to step in for him, though. If a well-past-his-prime Howard is the starter for 2022, with Hamid solidly in his prime, Guzan just past his, and Horvath, Gonzalez, and Steffen entering theirs, it'll almost certainly indicate the latter five will have been major disappointments.

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