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MSantoine
Post #16
Tuesday September 17, 2013 8:10pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2,231
Original post from recycledhumans

I think we're trying to make two different points. My point was that we shouldn't get a seed solely by virtue of winning the Hex, but that it should goes toward the calculation. For example, take UEFA...winning your group in UEFA should could more than us winning the Hex, because of the level of competition...same with CONMEBOL. Granted, the disparity in quality is something that should also be taken into account, but winning one's group in qualifying should definitely count for something.


Winning CONMEBOL is the hardest thing out of any soccer tourney. They should be guarenteed a seed everytime. UEFA sometimes has some very soft groups. This year for instance Id say winning the hex is just as good if not better than winning some UEFA Groups. Swap us with Italy and is winning that group harder than the hex? What about Group E? Or trade places with germany in group C. The hex can stack up pretty evenly with the non to-heavy groups (ie the ones that will probably win the playoffs)

recycledhumans
DFWTX
Post #17
Tuesday September 17, 2013 9:42pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,174
Original post from MSantoine

Winning CONMEBOL is the hardest thing out of any soccer tourney. They should be guarenteed a seed everytime. UEFA sometimes has some very soft groups. This year for instance Id say winning the hex is just as good if not better than winning some UEFA Groups. Swap us with Italy and is winning that group harder than the hex? What about Group E? Or trade places with germany in group C. The hex can stack up pretty evenly with the non to-heavy groups (ie the ones that will probably win the playoffs)


Agreed, I think the specific stats of the rank of the teams being played in a given group should weigh just as much as the fed. that the group itself is in. Obviously if you're facing a Moldova or Martinique, an 8-0 win probably wouldn't count as much as a 0-0 away draw against Spain.

I'll leave it to the statisticians and math geeks to figure out the equations, but we do need some equations.

skangles
DC
Post #18
Tuesday September 17, 2013 10:18pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 2,094
As the seeding policy is unknown it's tough to say (thank you FIFA for your excellent clarity). If seeding isn't at stake for the winner of the Hex then winning the group is absolutely meaningless. Sure it's nice for a moral boost but that only goes so far.

Quick, remember that time when we barely qualified for the Hex and were losing to Guatemala 1-0 at home in a must win game? Of course nobody is talking about this right now because it's irrelevant to how we've been playing since then.

Same with the World Cup. The 2014 team will be remembered for how far they get in Brazil and nobody will give a damn whether we got first or third in the CONCACAF qualification when it's all said and done.

On the flip side, if the question was how important is securing a place in the World Cup relatively early in the qualification process? I would answer incredibly important. I would not swap our position with Mexico's for anything. Sure Mexico has the talent to make a run in Brazil but we are much better positioned to do so at the moment which I view as incredibly important.

recycledhumans
DFWTX
Post #19
Wednesday September 18, 2013 1:50pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,174
So I guess that's the crux of the whole thread then...if FIFA doesn't factor into rankings/seeding who wins the qualifying groups, then where you finish makes no difference, so long as its in a qualifying spot.

So maybe we should start pestering FIFA for an answer?

rainORshine
Post #20
Wednesday September 18, 2013 3:23pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,787
Original post from recycledhumans

So I guess that's the crux of the whole thread then...if FIFA doesn't factor into rankings/seeding who wins the qualifying groups, then where you finish makes no difference, so long as its in a qualifying spot.

So maybe we should start pestering FIFA for an answer?


the crux is that you never really know how FIFA will determine the seeds. maybe a couple cycles down the line FIFA is looking for an 8th seed and say, "wow. USA has finished top of HEX 5 strait cycles - i think they deserve a seed"

it behooves you to win.

doesnt mean you dont use those games wisely and get some guys experience, because that helps you prepare for the WC and WC is the more important than WCQ.

but all things being equal, winning is better than not winning and you never really know how it might tangibly help you. no matter what winning WCQ games helps your ranking,,,

Know Nothing
Post #21
Wednesday September 18, 2013 4:08pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 392
Original post from recycledhumans

So I guess that's the crux of the whole thread then...if FIFA doesn't factor into rankings/seeding who wins the qualifying groups, then where you finish makes no difference, so long as its in a qualifying spot.

So maybe we should start pestering FIFA for an answer?


If every region qualified using the same criteria where there was a clear cut best team at the end of the qualifying cycle then it would be easier.

Perhaps they can use the Federation Championship (like Gold Cup winner) as a tool to determine a seed. That way the seeded team will have actually won something to merit a seed. If you won your federation's championship and you qualified, you will be seeded. If you don't qualify, then the seed goes to the highest ranked team in your federation. I would also seed the previous winner, provided they qualify, and the highest ranked team in the tournament

So, in this scenario, 1) the Host, 2) Previous Winner/ranked team, 3) UEFA champ/rep, 4) CAF champ/rep 5)CONMEBOL champ/rep 6) Asia champ/rep 7) CONCACAF champ/rep 8) Oceania/ranked team

recycledhumans
DFWTX
Post #22
Wednesday September 18, 2013 5:33pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,174
I'm not opposed to such a system, but if that's going to be the case then the fed. winner shouldn't be involved in the qualification process.

Know Nothing
Post #23
Wednesday September 18, 2013 6:15pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 392
Original post from Know Nothing

If every region qualified using the same criteria where there was a clear cut best team at the end of the qualifying cycle then it would be easier.

Perhaps they can use the Federation Championship (like Gold Cup winner) as a tool to determine a seed. That way the seeded team will have actually won something to merit a seed. If you won your federation's championship and you qualified, you will be seeded. If you don't qualify, then the seed goes to the highest ranked team in your federation. I would also seed the previous winner, provided they qualify, and the highest ranked team in the tournament

So, in this scenario, 1) the Host, 2) Previous Winner/ranked team, 3) UEFA champ/rep, 4) CAF champ/rep 5)CONMEBOL champ/rep 6) Asia champ/rep 7) CONCACAF champ/rep 8) Oceania/ranked team


And further to this, they could then use the rankings to fill Pots B, C, and D.

_Dw_
Post #24
Saturday October 12, 2013 9:57pm

Joined Sep 2012
Total Posts: 69
So USA still has the slightest of chances to qualify as seeded team. At this point, the only position left to attain is that #8 spot. After the first set of qualifiers yesterday, these are the current rankings..1)Spain 1510, 2)Argentina 1319, 3)Germany 1234, 4)Belgium 1214, 5)Italy 1147, 6)Colombia 1123-These top six can not be caught no matter the results for the final set of qualifiers. Add Brazil to that list as they receive the automatic bid and that leaves one spot open for a series of teams. Uruguay currently holds the final spot with 1106 points. They have clinched at least a playoff match (and this is what we want, and then we want them to lose that playoff series). Right behind Uruguay is Netherlands 1079, Switzerland 1061, England 1032, Portugal 1025, and USA 1021. With a win USA will be at 1040 points which means those teams need to finish below that. Portugal will not be above that number regardless of result so they are out. Netherlands must lose which would put them at 1033, Switzerland must lose which would put them at 995, England must lose 995 or tie 1024. If these three results happen combined with USA win then USA would move up to 9 (regardless of Brazil results, they are considered top 8). That leaves Uruguay in that final spot, Uruguay must win against Argentina in the final qualifier in order to have a shot at automatic qualification which is unlikely overall, and then we would have to wait a bit longer to see if Uruguay qualifies. Haha crazy scenario but that would be so entertaining.

skangles
DC
Post #25
Saturday October 12, 2013 10:08pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 2,094
Original post from _Dw_

So USA still has the slightest of chances to qualify as seeded team. At this point, the only position left to attain is that #8 spot. After the first set of qualifiers yesterday, these are the current rankings..1)Spain 1510, 2)Argentina 1319, 3)Germany 1234, 4)Belgium 1214, 5)Italy 1147, 6)Colombia 1123-These top six can not be caught no matter the results for the final set of qualifiers. Add Brazil to that list as they receive the automatic bid and that leaves one spot open for a series of teams. Uruguay currently holds the final spot with 1106 points. They have clinched at least a playoff match (and this is what we want, and then we want them to lose that playoff series). Right behind Uruguay is Netherlands 1079, Switzerland 1061, England 1032, Portugal 1025, and USA 1021. With a win USA will be at 1040 points which means those teams need to finish below that. Portugal will not be above that number regardless of result so they are out. Netherlands must lose which would put them at 1033, Switzerland must lose which would put them at 995, England must lose 995 or tie 1024. If these three results happen combined with USA win then USA would move up to 9 (regardless of Brazil results, they are considered top 8). That leaves Uruguay in that final spot, Uruguay must win against Argentina in the final qualifier in order to have a shot at automatic qualification which is unlikely overall, and then we would have to wait a bit longer to see if Uruguay qualifies. Haha crazy scenario but that would be so entertaining.


Good post. For completeness the Netherlands plays at Turkey (Turkey is in a must win situation). Switzerland plays home to Slovenia (Slovenia is in a must win situation). England plays home to Poland (England is in a must win situation given that Ukraine plays San Marino).

Given that Slovenia and Turkey are decent teams playing for their World Cup lives and Poland is a decent team that can play spoiler to England it's unlikely but not unthinkable that the Netherlands, Switzerland and England could all lose.

joey11
Post #26
Saturday October 12, 2013 10:11pm

Joined Oct 2012
Total Posts: 166
Original post from _Dw_

So USA still has the slightest of chances to qualify as seeded team. At this point, the only position left to attain is that #8 spot. After the first set of qualifiers yesterday, these are the current rankings..1)Spain 1510, 2)Argentina 1319, 3)Germany 1234, 4)Belgium 1214, 5)Italy 1147, 6)Colombia 1123-These top six can not be caught no matter the results for the final set of qualifiers. Add Brazil to that list as they receive the automatic bid and that leaves one spot open for a series of teams. Uruguay currently holds the final spot with 1106 points. They have clinched at least a playoff match (and this is what we want, and then we want them to lose that playoff series). Right behind Uruguay is Netherlands 1079, Switzerland 1061, England 1032, Portugal 1025, and USA 1021. With a win USA will be at 1040 points which means those teams need to finish below that. Portugal will not be above that number regardless of result so they are out. Netherlands must lose which would put them at 1033, Switzerland must lose which would put them at 995, England must lose 995 or tie 1024. If these three results happen combined with USA win then USA would move up to 9 (regardless of Brazil results, they are considered top 8). That leaves Uruguay in that final spot, Uruguay must win against Argentina in the final qualifier in order to have a shot at automatic qualification which is unlikely overall, and then we would have to wait a bit longer to see if Uruguay qualifies. Haha crazy scenario but that would be so entertaining.
While watching one of the WCQ< i think Uruguay, they said the seeded teams would be top 8 in this months rankings. Uruguay playoff would be in Nov. is something changed? I don't see USA getting seeded. Be nice but won't happen without a miracle. But being in top 10 would nice ego boost! That's really all the rankings are good for!

admsghs27
Post #27
Saturday October 12, 2013 10:52pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 3,409
It wont matter t the end I think USA loses 2/1

rainORshine
Post #28
Saturday October 12, 2013 11:06pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,787
seems like the ranking system needs a bit of a tweaking... hard to figure how netherlands, who beat uruguay in 2010 WC semi and dominated WCQ group is behind uruguay, who will likely finish 5th in S. American WCQ...

ultimate group of death:
Brazil
Netherlands
X
X

dolcem
Post #29
Saturday October 12, 2013 11:15pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 1,064
It felt nice to clinch the Hex with a game left. Nothing wrong with a little pride for the program and bragging points to rub in Mexico's face. And it will only add to the confidence and good spirit the team has going right now that will hopefully carry over to Brazil.
NO ONE GIVES A SHIT ABOUT WHAT LINEUP YOU USE IN FIFA
Kamphgruppe
Michigan
Post #30
Sunday October 13, 2013 6:53pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 281
Original post from dolcem

It felt nice to clinch the Hex with a game left. Nothing wrong with a little pride for the program and bragging points to rub in Mexico's face. And it will only add to the confidence and good spirit the team has going right now that will hopefully carry over to Brazil.


Yes, It certainly sends a message. There are still Mexicans who still believe that Mexico is the best tem.

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