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krdonnel
Post #1
Wednesday September 11, 2013 7:47pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 40
If this topic needs to be moved, please do so.. but..the Sept FIFA rankings come out tomorrow and there is only 1 more month before the rankings are locked in.

Obviously things can change (a little bit) but with the top 8 teams in tomorrows rankings, who would the US be in a group with (for the seeding drawing) and what might their their WC group look like...

If im not mistaken.. they can not be in a WC group with another CONCACAF team so they would be in the same pot of names for the seeding right?

what are some of the rules for the drawing?

MSantoine
Post #2
Wednesday September 11, 2013 8:28pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2,115
Only rules are other than Europe (13 teams, 8 groups) no 2 teams from the same confederation are allowed in the same group. That guarentees that each group will have one non-top 5 Euro team in it. Only other rule is top 7 teams based on FIFA october rankings plus Brazil will be put in a seeded pot to avoid each other. After that they take CONCACAF (3-4 teams), Africa (5 teams) Asia (4-5 teams), NZ (if they beat our 4th place team) & South America (4-5 teams minus seeded teams which will likely be Argentina and Colombia).

So its easy to see that if there are 4 CONCACAF teams and 4 Asian teams we'll probably be put in the same pot meaning we cant get a weak Asian team in our group. If our 4th place loses we may be paired with Africa and avoid an African team (ideal). Pretty much we are guarenteed to be paired up with either Africa or Asia.

Group of death scenario: Spain, Russia, USA, Uruguay
Cupcake scenario: Colombia, Switzerland, USA, Jordan

Jglaube
California
Post #3
Wednesday September 11, 2013 8:30pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 52
Lets hope for Iran

rainORshine
Post #4
Wednesday September 11, 2013 9:15pm

Joined Dec 2012
Total Posts: 1,770
Original post from MSantoine

Only rules are other than Europe (13 teams, 8 groups) no 2 teams from the same confederation are allowed in the same group. That guarentees that each group will have one non-top 5 Euro team in it. Only other rule is top 7 teams based on FIFA october rankings plus Brazil will be put in a seeded pot to avoid each other. After that they take CONCACAF (3-4 teams), Africa (5 teams) Asia (4-5 teams), NZ (if they beat our 4th place team) & South America (4-5 teams minus seeded teams which will likely be Argentina and Colombia).

So its easy to see that if there are 4 CONCACAF teams and 4 Asian teams we'll probably be put in the same pot meaning we cant get a weak Asian team in our group. If our 4th place loses we may be paired with Africa and avoid an African team (ideal). Pretty much we are guarenteed to be paired up with either Africa or Asia.

Group of death scenario: Spain, Russia, USA, Uruguay
Cupcake scenario: Colombia, Switzerland, USA, Jordan


yea, most likely:
pot 1: top 8 seeds - 5 UEFA + 3 S. America
pot 2: remaining 8 UEFA teams
pot 3: South America (3) + Africa (5)
pot 4: CONCACAF (4) + Asia (4)

US draw
- 1 top 8 seed (SA or UEFA)
- 1 UEFA
- SA or Africa

if we get one of the SA seeds (brazil, argentina, columbia) we will not get another SA team - we would automatically get an african team

krdonnel
Post #5
Wednesday September 11, 2013 9:22pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 40
Just a quick glimpse of home for those wanting a top 8 seed. 3 of the 4 teams ahead of us will more than likely be in the UEFA playoffs (which will be very tough this year). Right now its slated to be Croatia, Portugal, Greece (3 of the 4 ahead of us) along with France, Sweden (a very good team), Hungary, Bulgaria and Ukraine. France probably wont be a seeded team and will likely have to face a top team.. ouch.

Know Nothing
Post #6
Wednesday September 11, 2013 10:14pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 352
I think now most of our players play in Europe, playing two UEFA teams would not be a bad thing. Also, JK knows European teams and tactics, so it would not be as bad as in the past.

Nightmare scenario for us IMO

Argentina
Belgium
USA
Ghana

I think, though, we will get the following group:

Germany
Russia
USA
Ecuador

2tone
Ten-Towns
Post #7
Wednesday September 11, 2013 11:11pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 4,922
I am hopeful the US gets a good draw:

Like this:

USA
Ecuador
Italy
Algeria

Know Nothing
Post #8
Wednesday September 11, 2013 11:41pm

Joined Jan 2013
Total Posts: 352
Original post from 2tone

I am hopeful the US gets a good draw:

Like this:

USA
Ecuador
Italy
Algeria


It would be a nice group, but I don't think it is possible. It is unlikely we will be seeded. The Top 8 seeded teams will probably be Brazil, Spain, Germany, Colombia, Argentina, Netherlands, Italy and one more Euro team, either Portugal, Croatia, or Belgium.

The remaining 8 Euro teams will go into the second pot.

The third pot will probably be the African 5 and South American 3

The fourth pot will be Our 4 (include NZ if they win the playoff) and Asia's 4

So if we get Italy, we will get another Euro team.

2tone
Ten-Towns
Post #9
Wednesday September 11, 2013 11:55pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 4,922
Meh, we get who we get.

Jzaval01
Post #10
Thursday September 12, 2013 1:45am

Joined May 2013
Total Posts: 1,436
Seeing how bad England has played it would be great to get them no? Who out of the top 8 do you believe will be best for us? Colombia, Netherlands or Portugal or maybe another team. It would be great to get the weakest out of the 3 seeded south American team which is Colombia. Get anyone but Ghana and get something like bosnia greece or even England seeing how terrible they have been
So best outcome
- Either Argentina, Brazil or Colombia
- African team except for Ghana
- Bosnia/ Greece/ ENgland type of team
USA

Interesting group
Germany
USA
Ghana/Egypt
England

Ironman
Post #11
Thursday September 12, 2013 1:57am

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 13
When did FIFA announce the procedure for seeding the top eight? Are people assuming it will be done the same as 2010? If so then RainorShine has it correct.

Here are your current pots (based on current standings and if qualifying ended Tuesday):

A: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium
B: Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia, England, Portugal, Croatia, Greece, France (the last four are hypothetical; among the UEFA playoff teams they're the highest ranked)
C: Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay (or Jordan), Ghana, Cape Verde, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Nigeria (much like UEFA, the CAF teams are pure conjecture)
D: Iran, South Korea, Japan, Australia, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama (or New Zealand)

Interesting to see what chaos Jordan and New Zealand can cause by winning their playoff match-ups.

Bottom line, the USNT will get the following:

1. One team each from South America (Pot A), Europe (Pot B), and Africa (Pot C)

or

2. Two European teams (Pot A and B) and either a South American or African (Pot C)

Either way, it doesn't matter. The USNT got lucky with the draw in 2010, there is no given it will happen again.

As 2tone said, "we get who we get."

MSantoine
Post #12
Thursday September 12, 2013 2:22pm

Joined Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2,115
The best way to get a good draw (other then get seeded) is if New Zealand win. Then there would be 3 CONCACAF teams, 5 AFC teams, 5 CAF teams, 2-3 non-seeded CONMEBOL teams and/or NZ. Our best possible draw has us put in a pot with Africa and only way thats possible is if either an African team is seeded (doubtful) or we only have 3 teams and FIFA tosses us a bone for stealing the world cup from us in 2022. Then we avoid all African teams and could get a weak Asian team. Iran is by far the weakest team to qualify. If Jordan gets in they take that hat. Getting either of them makes us only have to win 1 of our other 2 games to make the knockout round

krdonnel
Post #13
Thursday September 12, 2013 2:51pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 40
Well.. here are some facts to put to rest the idea of the US getting seeded...
US can max out with 2 wins in October = total of 1061 (or something like that)

Teams ahead of us...
Greece- 2 wins = 1000 They can not catch the US
Portugal- 2 wins = 1054 They can not catch the US
Croatia- 2 wins = 1130 They need to draw both games (979), or lose at least one game (Belgium/Scotland) however, if they lose to Belgium we wont be able to catch Belgium. They must draw or beat Belgium and draw/lose to Scotland or in the playoffs.
Belgium- 2 wins = 1249 They must draw or lose to Croatia and lose to Scotland or lose to Croatia and draw Scotland.

Those who can catch the US...
England- 2 wins = 1076 Any lose/draw they cannot catch up
Swiss- 2 wins = 1191 They must draw both games OR lose to Albania/draw Slovenia OR lose to Slovenia.

Heres the kicker... Uruguay.. Thanks to the unlikely thrashing of #3 Columbia.. we can no longer catch in any scenario unless they are relegated to the playoffs and lose (very unlikely) or knocked out all together (very unlikely as well).

Here it is.. the most likely of the all scenarios the US gets a seed..
Croatia beats Belgium and draws Scotland (Croatia goes to playoffs)
Belguim also draws Scotland
England draws Poland or Montenegro
Swiss lose to Slovenia
Uruguay loses to Ecuador, Argentina and in the playoffs to Jordan (i think thats who won..)

** There is a SLIGHT change Uruguay gets knocked out all together. They lose their last 2 games (Ecuador/Argentina), Venezuela beats bottom dweller Paraguay AND makes up 6 goals in differential between all the games. We would have to hope for more than 1 goal losses in both Uruguay games and a thrashing of Paraguay.

Obviously speculation and its all a LONG shot but jst something for everyone to keep an eye on during the October Qualifiers. The US really hurt themselves w the loss to Costa Rica though..

krdonnel
Post #14
Thursday September 12, 2013 3:04pm

Joined Sep 2013
Total Posts: 40
I didnt realize this but the Netherlands and Columbia are also in striking distance...

Columbia plays Chili and Paraguay (both at the bottom) and 2 draws puts the US ahead of them.

Netherlands- A draw with either Hungary or Turkey and the US leap frogs them.

2tone
Ten-Towns
Post #15
Thursday September 12, 2013 3:49pm

Joined Jul 2012
Total Posts: 4,922
Here is the rub. FIFA as of yet to make a final decision on who the seeded teams will be. There is no guarantee that the seeded teams will be done like 2010. FIFA has stated that they will determine the seeded teams 3 days before the group draw in December. It is probable that FIFA may select seeded teams from the confederations group winners meaning that the US should still look to place first in the HEX.

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